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Quantifying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgement: a structured integration of expert judgement into the scenario development process

  • The integration of expert judgment is a fundamental pillar of most scenario planning processes. In particular, the systematic scanning of external expert opinions has been shown to be effective for the early detection of emerging threats and opportunities in an organization’s eironment. However, organizations tend to focus on internal advice more than on advice from external experts. This can be critical for organizations if it leads to an inertia in internal judgment, resulting in blind spots or a failure to see weak signals in the firm’s periphery. In this article, we introduce a structured framework for the collection and structuring of internal and external expert judgment. This so-called 360∘<math altimg="si1.gif" overflow="scroll"> </math>Stakeholder Feedback tool provides a structured and quantitative approach for the detection and discussion of blind spots and weak signals in scenario planning processes. Thus, it can contribute to a better and more holistic judgment in the strategic process. We demonstrate the methodology based on a case from the German construction industry, in which we aggregate and analyze expert judgments from different stakeholder groups regarding the future of the industry.

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Document Type:Article
Author:Philip Meißner, Christian Brands, Torsten WulfORCiD
Center:Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning (CSSP)
Year of Completion:2017
In: International Journal of Forecasting, 33 (2017) 1, 244–253