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On the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators for explaining real exports of advanced economies

  • We discuss the relative merits of various indicators of international price competitiveness from a conceptual point of view, and empirically check which indicator serves best to predict real exports in the long run. To this end, a panel cointegration analysis is conducted, augmented by a forecast exercise. In the latter, repeated sampling techniques are used in order to avoid arbitrary sample splits. In line with the theoretical reasoning, we find that broad price- and cost-based indicators are to be preferred to narrow price-based measures such as CPI- or PPI-deflated real exchange rates. Furthermore, the evidence points towards using world trade as external activity variable instead of GDP- or real imports-based measures.

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Metadaten
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Author:Christoph Fischer, Oliver HossfeldORCiD, Karin Radeck
Chairs and Professorships:Chair of Macroeconomics
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-017-9457-9
Parent Title (English):Open Economies Review
ISSN:0923-7992
Volume:29
Year of Completion:2018
First Page:119
Last Page:139
Tag:International price competitiveness; Price elasticity of exports; Real export demand
Content Focus:Academic Audience
Peer Reviewed:Yes
Rankings:AJG Ranking / 2
Licence (German):License LogoUrheberrechtlich gesch├╝tzt