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Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market

  • We analyze whether various types of speculative iestor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. In contrast to earlier studies, we account for the large number of tests conducted by comparing results based on individual significance tests with those based on controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) or the family-wise error rate (FER). While the evidence for speculative positions leading exchange rate movements, and therefore an inefficient EUR currency futures market, largely collapses if we account for multiple testing, such a pattern does not emerge in the other direction.

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Document Type:Article
Author:Oliver Hossfeld
Chairs and Professorships:Chair of Macroeconomics
Year of Completion:2016
In: Finance Research Letters, 18 (2016) August, 218-225