Greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) taxes on food products have recently been proposed as means to help reduce agricultural emissions. Numerous authors have calculated potential GHGE reductions in case such a tax was implemented in certain countries or regions. They did however assume a reduced production of GHGE-intense foods equal to the decline in demand induced by the tax. This omits, however, possible increases of net-exports that might offset such a demand reduction. Herein, the market dynamic behind this so-called “emission leakage” is explained and its effect quantified for a greenhouse gas tax in the European Union. We use the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model for the quantitative analysis and simulate a greenhouse gas tax on all food products, based on their individual emission levels. The partial equilibrium model covers all world regions and hence the tax's effects on international trade of agricultural commodities can be examined. It was found that 43% of the greenhouse gas reduction indicted by a domestic consumption reduction is lost through emission leakage. This already includes the mitigating effects of a production shift from inefficient to efficient producers that is another consequence of increased exports from the European Union. A greenhouse gas emission tax on food products is hence much less efficient than previously proposed, if it is not introduced globally or trade is not restricted.

Agriculture causes large parts of global Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), with livestock contributing the greatest share. Livestock-based foods are thus associated to higher GHGE than plant-based foods. Additionally, they are harmful to health when consumed in excess. The focus of this work lies on determining the potential to reduce agricultural GHGE when healthy diets and lower meat intakes were adopted in the EU. lt is also examined how much feed crops and pastures would become available for the production of biofuels. An emission tax and an emission trading system are also examined. To assess the complex interactions in the agricultural sector, a modified version of the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) is used. _x000D_ The results show that a halved meat intake could reduce agricultural GHGE by a quarter and biofuel production could increase eightfold. The political instruments lack effectiveness though. The GHG tax has a low impact on nutrition and roughly 50% emission leakage. Emission trading has only a moderate effect on nutrition and over 100% emission leakage.