In times of the “Zeitenwende” European defence industrial companies face several challenges simultaneously: high fragmentation of the industrial ecosystem and product portfolio, a historic focus on small-volume production of complex weapons systems, the need to expand capacity fast, diverging European national security strategies, Europeanisation of the security sector, and a dominant US defence industry, among others. This article analyses the most likely strategies for the European defence industrial companies as a response to this situation. The analysis is based on 18 semi-structured expert interviews with representatives of the European defence industry, academia, and politicians to identify and assess the strategic options. Porter’s Diamond framework is used to assess the impact of governmental influence, availability of production factors, historic chance, and structure of the value chain on the selection of strategies. The analysis focuses on pan-European industry consolidation, exports, self-funded R&D, internationalisation, co-operation with SMEs, and future large-scale defence co-operation programmes.

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Meditation und der Neigung zur Gewinnmaximierung. Sie baut auf Modellen auf, die Meditation mit Achtsamkeit und moralischem Verhalten in Verbindung bringen. In zwei getrennten Laborexperimenten mit 109 sowie 450 Teilnehmern und unterschiedlichen Forschungsdesigns ließ sie eine Managemententscheidung mit ethischer Dimension treffen. Die Teilnehmer meditierten und entschieden danach, wie viele Mitarbeiter sie in einer Krisensituation entlassen, um kurzfristig den Gewinn zu maximieren. Die Einschätzungen der Meditierenden wurden mit denen der Kontrollgruppen verglichen. Die Ergebnisse des ersten Experiments legen nahe, dass Teilnehmer, die sich für Meditation interessieren, bereits vor der Meditation eine geringere Neigung zur Gewinnmaximierung haben als die Teilnehmer der Kontrollgruppe. Die Ergebnisse des zweiten Experiments deuten auf ein Mediationsmodell mit einem Wirkmechanismus zwischen Meditation, Achtsamkeit und Gewinnmaximierung hin. Die statistische Auswertung legt nahe, dass die Meditationsübung signifikant die Neigung zur Gewinnmaximierung minderte, indem sie die Achtsamkeit der Teilnehmer erhöhte. Achtsamkeit war ein partieller Mediator. Damit scheint Meditation sowohl den Zustand der Achtsamkeit als auch das tatsächliche Entscheidungsverhalten zu beeinflussen. Interessanterweise trat dieser Effekt bereits nach einer Meditation von 13 Minuten ein. Ein achtsamer Umgang mit den eigenen Mitarbeitern und den Entscheidungen im Unternehmen könnte insgesamt wünschenswert sein.

Heuristics are often characterized as rules of thumb that can be used to speed up the process of decision-making. They have been examined across a wide range of fields, including economics, psychology, and computer science. However, scholars still struggle to find substantial common ground. This study provides a historical review of heuristics as a research topic before and after the emergence of the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, emphasising the evolutionary perspective that considers heuristics as resulting from the development of the brain. We find it useful to distinguish between deliberate and automatic uses of heuristics, but point out that they can be used consciously and subconsciously. While we can trace the idea of heuristics through many centuries and fields of application, we focus on the evolution of the modern notion of heuristics through three waves of research, starting with Herbert Simon in the 1950s, who introduced the notion of bounded rationality and suggested the use of heuristics in artificial intelligence, thereby paving the way for all later research on heuristics. A breakthrough came with Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the 1970s, who analysed the biases arising from using heuristics. The resulting research programme became the subject of criticism by Gerd Gigerenzer in the 1990s, who argues that an ‘adaptive toolbox’ consisting of ‘fast-and-frugal’ heuristics can yield ‘ecologically rational’ decisions.

Heuristics are mental shortcuts applied, consciously, subconsciously or both, to save time and efforts at the expense of risking the accuracy of the outcome. Therefore, one might argue that it is just an accuracy-effort trade-off. Nonetheless, we ought to recognize the distinction between the circumstances of risk, where all choices, outcomes, and probabilities might be generally known, and the circumstances of uncertainty, where, at least some, are not. Traditional models like the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) work best for decisions under risk but not under uncertainty, which portrays most situations people need to tackle. Uncertainty requires simple heuristics that are sufficient instead of perfect. In this dissertation, the notion of heuristics was researched through a comprehensive historical review that unfolded the heuristics-linked ideas of significant scholars. An explicit distinction between the deliberate and the automatic heuristics was stated with chronological categories of pre and post-introduction of the SEU theory; providing a new perspective and opening a discussion for future research to consider. Additionally, qualitative and quantitative studies were applied that produced an unsophisticated heuristic set that was used by entrepreneurs in the Middle East and Germany. Perhaps entrepreneurs, and people in general, do not always know or acknowledge their use of heuristics. But still, they use it extensively and may exchange heuristics among others. That may lead us to think that in a world where uncertainty prevails, the Homo heuristicus might become a real threat to the Homo economicus.