Approach and Methodology
(2022)
Glossary of terms
(2022)
Ranking System
(2022)
This foresight project focuses on a key question for the future of Germany’s foreign policy: Given changing geopolitical and economic relationships among major powers, what possible futures can be foreseen soft power approaches or external cultural policy (ECP) in terms of narratives, strategies, goals, policies, and programmatic activities? To address this question, we place Germany in a comparative framework of international relations that considers soft power approaches in the context of prevailing geopolitical and economic relations between the European Union, the United States of America, and the People’s Republic of China as well as other global players. In each case, we consider soft power approaches relative to hard and sharp power options. The time frame for the future scenarios is the year 2030, anticipating likely and potential developments and events from 2022 onward. The scenarios are based on a series of brainstorming and validation sessions, literature reviews, personal interviews, and an online survey fielded among experts and representatives of leading institutions. We identified two major drivers of future developments: the state of the world economy and the state of the world’s security situation. Exploring the interaction between these two drivers yielded four distinct scenarios.
This foresight project focuses on a key question for the future of Germany’s foreign policy: Given changing geopolitical and economic relationships among major powers, what possible futures can be foreseen soft power approaches or external cultural policy (ECP) in terms of narratives, strategies, goals, policies, and programmatic activities? To address this question, we place Germany in a comparative framework of international relations that considers soft power approaches in the context of prevailing geopolitical and economic relations between the European Union, the United States of America, and the People’s Republic of China as well as other global players. In each case, we consider soft power approaches relative to hard and sharp power options. The time frame for the future scenarios is the year 2030, anticipating likely and potential developments and events from 2022 onward. The scenarios are based on a series of brainstorming and validation sessions, literature reviews, personal interviews, and an online survey fielded among experts and representatives of leading institutions. We identified two major drivers of future developments: the state of the world economy and the state of the world’s security situation. Exploring the interaction between these two drivers yielded four distinct scenarios.
Dieses Projekt konzentriert sich auf zentrale Fragen der zukünftigen deutschen Außenpolitik: Welche Szenarien zeichnen sich angesichts der sich verändernden geopolitischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen den Großmächten für Soft Power-Ansätze ab? Und was bedeuten diese für die jeweiligen Narrative, Strategien, Ziele, Programme und Aktivitäten der auswärtigen Kultur- und Bildungspolitik Deutschlands? Um diese Fragen zu beantworten, untersuchen wir Optionen für Deutschlands Soft Power-Aktivitäten im Kontext der internationalen Beziehungen zu Partnerstaaten sowie aktuellen Wettbewerbern als auch möglichen Kontrahenten. Dabei berücksichtigen wir insbesondere die vorherrschenden geopolitischen und ökonomischen Beziehungen zwischen Deutschland als Teil der Europäischen Union, den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika und der Volksrepublik China sowie anderen wichtigen Akteuren, wobei auch Aspekte von Hard Power (militärische Stärke) und Sharp Power (Wirtschaftsmacht) einbezogen werden. Der Zeitrahmen für die Zukunftsszenarien ist das Jahr 2030 mit dem Versuch, wahrscheinliche und mögliche Entwicklungen und Ereignisse zu antizipieren. Die Szenarien beruhen auf mehreren Diskussionsrunden und Brainstorming-Sitzungen, Literaturrecherchen, Experteninterviews, einer Online-Umfrage unter Vertretern und Vertreterinnen führender Institutionen der auswärtigen Kultur- und Bildungspolitik und abschießender Validierung der erarbeitenden Szenarien und deren Implikationen. Im Zuge dessen wurden zwei zentrale Faktoren für zukünftige Entwicklungen ausgemacht: die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft einerseits und die globale Sicherheitslage andererseits. Aus der Verknüpfung beider Faktoren entstehen vier unterschiedliche Szenarien.
This paper explores the impact of rising nationalism on soft power by analysing the external cultural policies (ECP) of eight countries: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey. It argues that ECP will increasingly operate in a zero-sum international environment shaped by nationalism, with its domestic effects varying across nations. While institutions in France are more exposed to nationalist influence, the ‘arm’s length’ principle offers greater protection in the UK and Germany, and the diversity of private actors serves as a protective buffer in the United States. Nationalistic ECP in China, Russia, and Turkey is anticipated to grow, while Poland exemplifies institutional resistance to nationalism. The paper then proceeds into a case study of the current discourse in Germany, contrasting the views of different nationalist parties about German ECP. Finally, recommendations are proposed for countries like Germany and other European nations: support the arm’s-length principle of key institutions; enhance coordination among ECP actors domestically and within the EU; shield against malign foreign influence; create and communicate anti-nationalist narratives; proactively leveraging existing strengths and opportunities.
